Syria’s Shifting Power Landscape after Assad’s Fall
As Bashar al-Assad’s regime crumbles, a new government is emerging in Syria, raising questions about its direction. Will it take a softer approach or adopt a more extreme stance similar to the Taliban in Afghanistan?
In northwest Syria, the group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S., has been in control of the Idlib Governorate. HTS has created its own administration, known as the Syrian Salvation Government, claiming to focus more on local governance rather than global jihadist ambitions. This group has established bureaucratic systems and ministries to manage public services, including safety.
Natasha Hall, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, describes HTS’s rule in Idlib as having been oppressive, stating that they have maintained strict control over the population. At its peak, HTS governed around two million residents. Its leader, Mohammed al-Golani, has been trying to distance the group from its jihadist roots and shift its focus towards local issues in Idlib.
Despite the claims of improved governance, Hall warned against viewing HTS as a democratic regime. While they have driven some religious minorities out of Idlib, there are reports of some who still live peacefully among them. However, there have been serious concerns about HTS’s treatment of dissent. Hall mentioned incidents where political protests in Idlib led to violent crackdowns, including the killing of activists.
HTS has sometimes relaxed its strict interpretation of Islamic law and reduced the power of morality enforcers. But with the collapse of Assad’s rule, there is uncertainty regarding how al-Golani plans to govern the rest of Syria. Hall emphasized the potential chaos as various factions may vie for power in the power vacuum left by Assad’s exit.
Tammy Palacios from the New Lines Institute pointed out that while al-Golani has attempted to reshape HTS’s image, the group’s commitment to moderation across the board remains unclear. Known for severe actions against opposition, HTS has arrested and punished individuals based on their interpretation of Islamic law.
Following the Assad regime’s downfall, HTS has formed a transitional government and appointed an interim prime minister, Mohammed al-Bashir. HTS leaders, including al-Golani, have promised to protect the rights of all Syrians, but their actual governance and treatment of various groups remain to be seen.
In their rapid advancement, HTS has made commitments to maintain local governance and protect significant religious sites. However, there are ongoing discussions about possibly removing HTS from terrorist lists as the U.S. seeks the group’s cooperation in addressing issues like the return of missing American journalist Austin Tice.
As the future of Syria unfolds, it is crucial for international powers to engage with HTS carefully, ensuring any governing body does not lead Syria back into turmoil. The outcome of these developments could drastically impact the humanitarian and economic landscape in the region.
