New Gaza Peace Framework Faces Tough Challenges
A new peace plan for Gaza, developed by former President Donald Trump, has the potential to change the region’s dynamics. However, experts caution that if Hamas is not completely disarmed, this may only serve as a temporary lull before further conflict.
Dr. Michael Milshtein, an expert on Hamas at Tel Aviv University, emphasizes that any proposal expecting Hamas to dissolve misunderstands the group’s resilient nature. “Forget about peace or coexistence; it isn’t going to happen,” he stated. According to Milshtein, Hamas’s leaders are unlikely to accept any outside control and prefer to continue operating behind the scenes while a nominal Palestinian administration handles daily affairs.
Israel’s ambassador has stated firmly that lasting peace will not occur unless Hamas returns all hostages and disarms. Milshtein notes that while Hamas might be open to “freezing” its weapons output, it is not likely to fully surrender its arms. He predicts that Hamas will remain a significant force in Gaza regardless of the outcome.
An informed source suggested that Hamas might agree to disarm only if it feels secure that Israeli leadership won’t retaliate after it lays down its arms, indicating that the next phase of negotiations will be challenging. Ghaith al-Omari from the Washington Institute remarked that current optimism stems from strong coordination among Arab states, as various pressures have spurred them to act.
Turkey’s involvement has also been crucial, as it has its own interests aligned with Washington. Al-Omari explained that Turkey’s influence on Hamas, both politically and ideologically, could persuade the group to adopt a longer-term strategy focused on political survival rather than armed conflict.
However, he noted signs of fading Arab unity regarding disarmament, citing various officials’ comments that may weaken collective resolve.
The real test will come once the hostages are freed. According to Tamir Heiman, a former Israeli intelligence chief, there are three possible scenarios for the aftermath. In the best-case situation, Hamas works with international forces to set up a new government. If not, Israel could still transfer some security control to global forces in a gradual manner. The third option, which Heiman sees as the most likely, is that Israel retains a security presence while Hamas keeps some of its lighter weaponry.
Overall, experts agree that while the Trump-led plan has aligned interests among regional players, maintaining this cooperation through the complex processes of disarmament and reconstruction will be crucial for creating a sustainable peace. If Hamas continues to exist as a military and political force, it may lead to a situation where any so-called “peace” is merely a temporary pause, not a true resolution.
