TOKYO: A Major Oil Route Faces Geopolitical Risks
Around 84% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz is headed to Asian countries, leaving economies like China, India, and South Korea at risk if Iran decides to block this vital trade passage in response to US military actions on its nuclear facilities.
The Strait sees about 14.2 million barrels of crude oil and 5.9 million barrels of other petroleum products each day, making up roughly 20% of global oil production, as reported by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Most of the crude oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran travels through this narrow channel.
Tankers Navigate the Strait
Here’s a closer look at some key Asian countries reliant on oil from the Strait of Hormuz:
China
Experts estimate that more than half of East Asia’s oil imports come from this strait. In the first quarter of this year, China imported about 5.4 million barrels of crude oil daily through Hormuz. Saudi Arabia is China’s second-largest oil supplier, providing 1.6 million barrels a day, which is about 15% of its total oil imports. Notably, China also accounts for over 90% of Iran’s oil exports, with imports hitting 1.3 million barrels a day in April.
India
India is also heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, bringing in 2.1 million barrels of crude daily in the first quarter. About 53% of its imported oil comes from the Middle East, particularly from nations like Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In light of rising tensions in the region, India’s government has increased its imports of Russian oil. “We are closely monitoring the situation in the Middle East,” said Hardeep Singh Puri, India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas.
South Korea
For South Korea, around 68% of its crude oil imports, totaling 1.7 million barrels daily, come from the Strait. Saudi Arabia alone provided a third of South Korea’s oil last year. While the trade and energy ministry reported no disruptions so far, they are preparing for potential supply issues.
Japan
Japan imports about 1.6 million barrels of crude oil each day through the Strait of Hormuz. According to customs data, 95% of Japanese crude oil last year came from the Middle East. Shipping companies in Japan are readying for possible disruptions, focusing on reducing ship transit time in the Gulf.
Other Destinations
In addition to East Asia, around 2 million barrels of crude oil from the Strait go to other regions, including Thailand, the Philippines, Europe, and the United States, which also depend on this crucial route.
Alternatives and Challenges
While Asian countries could seek alternative oil suppliers, replacing the significant volumes from the Middle East poses a challenge. According to experts at MUFG Bank, while there may be some buffer through global inventories and US shale production, any full closure of the Hormuz Strait would impact the availability of oil from the Persian Gulf.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have built infrastructure to bypass the Strait, but their capacity to do so remains limited at around 2.6 million barrels a day. Iran’s Goreh-Jask pipeline, which could provide alternative access via the Gulf of Oman, has not been operational since last year and can only handle 300,000 barrels per day.
With tensions rising, the oil market is on alert, and these Asian economies are bracing for any potential fallout.
