India’s Fertility Rate Continues to Decline
India’s average fertility rate, which indicates the number of children a woman is expected to have, has dropped further to 1.9, down from 2.1, according to the latest report from the Sample Registration System (SRS) for 2024. Only six states—Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand—have a fertility rate above the replacement level of 2.1.
Delhi records the lowest fertility rate at 1.2, followed closely by Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, each with rates around 1.3. The replacement level of 2.1 is important as it suggests that, on average, a woman needs to have about 2.1 children to replace herself and her partner. When the fertility rate dips below this threshold for extended periods, population growth can stall, and possibly decrease, influenced by the age structure of the population and life expectancy.
Over the past decade, Bihar has experienced the smallest decrease in fertility rate, falling just 9.4%, from 3.2 in 2012-14 to 2.9 in 2022-24. Chhattisgarh and Assam also have shown smaller reductions of 11.5% and 13%, respectively. In contrast, Delhi and Tamil Nadu saw more significant declines, with rates falling 29.4% and 23.5%, respectively.
States that have had low fertility rates for more than ten years also show a smaller share of the population in the 0-14 age group. In Tamil Nadu, for instance, only 18% of the population is under 14 years old, whereas in Bihar the figure is 31.5%. Nationwide, about 24% of people fall into this younger age group.
Interestingly, despite the decline in fertility rates, India’s working-age population (ages 15-59) continues to grow, indicating that the demographic window of opportunity is still available for the country. Currently, this age group makes up 66.4% of the total population, an increase from 64% in 2014. Meanwhile, the youth aged 0-14 make up 24%, and those over 60 account for less than 10%.
However, this demographic advantage may soon change. States like Tamil Nadu show a minimal increase in their working-age population, suggesting that the peak may not be far off. The percentage of individuals aged 60 and above has risen from 8.6% to 9.7% across India, with Kerala having the highest proportion at 15%. Tamil Nadu has also seen a notable rise in older adults, climbing from 10.6% to 14.2%.
Prof. Arokiasamy Perianayagam, a fertility expert, notes that while the decline in fertility rates is likely to accelerate, high mortality rates, particularly infant mortality, mean that India is not close to achieving zero population growth. The large number of young people in the reproductive age group will continue to drive population growth for the foreseeable future.
