India is expected to experience lower than normal rainfall in November, with temperatures likely to be warmer than usual across many regions. This information comes from the latest monthly forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The forecast indicates that nationwide rainfall will reach only 77% of the average for this time of year, translating to around 29.7 mm. However, some regions, particularly in Central, Northwest, and Northeast India, may see normal to above-average rainfall. This is a crucial time for farmers in Central and Northwest India as they begin sowing wheat, which will bring some relief.
In October, India reported a rainfall deficit of 3.5 percent, marking it as the sixth-lowest October rainfall since the year 2001. The southern regions of the country, however, are forecasted to receive even less rainfall, below the expected 77% of the Long Period Average (LPA). For reference, the LPA for South Peninsular India during November, based on historical data from 1971 to 2020, is about 118.7 mm.
Regarding temperatures, normal to slightly below-normal highs are anticipated in the Himalayan, Central, and Eastern parts of India this month.
The IMD has linked these weather patterns to very strong El Niño conditions occurring over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Additionally, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently affecting the Indian Ocean and are expected to persist through the post-monsoon season until December.
In terms of impending weather events, a low-pressure system developing in the southeast Bay of Bengal is predicted to strengthen into a depression and could evolve into a cyclonic storm by November 1. This storm may impact the coast of Andhra Pradesh, which recently experienced the effects of Cyclone Arnab, with potential impacts expected by November 2.
