Winter Monsoon Brings Hope Amid Rain Deficit in India
New Delhi: The rainy season in India officially concluded on Wednesday, ending a summer monsoon period from June to September that resulted in a rainfall deficit of nearly 13%. This shortfall is significant enough to classify the year as a drought. In fact, it marks one of the driest monsoon seasons since 2001, ranking as the fourth lowest in seasonal rainfall records since 1901.
Looking ahead, there is some optimism for the upcoming winter monsoon, expected to reach South Peninsular India between October 15 and 21. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted that states like Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, and parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, and south interior Karnataka will likely experience normal rainfall during the October to December period.
However, this good news will be limited to a few regions. While parts of northwest India, including Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir, are predicted to receive normal to above-normal rainfall this winter, most other areas are expected to see below-normal precipitation. Previously, Punjab and South Peninsular India struggled with significant rainfall deficits during the summer monsoon, leading to drought conditions in various districts.
The IMD’s forecasts suggest that the winter rains could provide much-needed relief to southern India, which typically relies on this season for a considerable portion of its annual rainfall—about 30%. In states like Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal, this figure is even higher, with nearly 48% of their yearly rainfall coming during the northeast monsoon.
Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the head of the IMD, stated that while the exact start date of the winter monsoon remains uncertain, it generally coincides with the end of the summer monsoon, typically occurring between October 15 and 21. Despite the overall 13% decrease in rainfall across India, the east and northeast regions have been particularly hard-hit, facing a 25% deficit. South Peninsular India followed closely with a 24% shortfall. Mohapatra noted a concerning trend of declining rainfall in these eastern and northeastern areas.
As we await the winter rains, the hope is that they will bring some relief to regions that have been impacted by the drier summer months.
