Congress Moves Toward Power Shift in Karnataka and Beyond
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has been instrumental in facilitating a transition of power in Karnataka. He has established an alliance with the Tamil Nadu-based Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam to form a new government in Kerala. This development follows Congress’s strong performance in the Telangana assembly elections earlier this year.
However, the party now faces a critical test in Uttar Pradesh, where the upcoming 2024 national elections could define its future. The alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) has sparked optimism about reversing the party’s long-standing decline.
In the last Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-SP coalition secured 43 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, gathering 43.52% of the votes. Congress itself managed to win six out of the 17 seats it contested, obtaining around 9.46% of the vote share. Interestingly, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) saw its seats drop significantly from 62 in 2019 to just 33, marking its first decline below a majority since 2014.
Despite these wins, maintaining this momentum in Uttar Pradesh will be challenging for Congress. The party’s attempts to revive its fortunes have faced obstacles in previous elections over the last three decades. Upcoming seat-sharing discussions between Rahul Gandhi and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav are set for next week. These talks come after a failed attempt by Congress leaders to meet with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati, which led to speculation about possible alliances.
There seems to be some internal disagreement within Congress about aligning with the BSP or sticking with the SP. While some leaders favor the BSP, others caution against it, recalling how it previously drained Congress votes.
Akhilesh Pratap Singh from Congress emphasized the ongoing focus on improving the party’s organizational strength, suggesting that this groundwork will yield results in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections in 2027.
Next year, seven states will hold polls, and Uttar Pradesh is significant for Congress, which hasn’t been in power there since 1989. The party’s previous performance has drastically declined, falling from a vote share of 27.90% and 94 seats in the 1991 assembly to just 2.33% and two seats in 2022.
Congress is currently asking for over 100 seats for the 2027 elections, threatening to go independent if this demand is not met. Although Yadav supports the continuation of their alliance, he stressed that the number of seats each party gets will depend on winnability. In the 2017 elections, Congress contested 114 seats.
Party leaders argue that the alliance benefits the SP by consolidating Muslim voters while also drawing in Dalit support, which is crucial as many hesitate to back a party primarily representing the Yadav community. They believe this coalition can also weaken the BJP’s influence.
The SP has pointed out challenges regarding Congress’s lack of candidates and electoral success. Yet, Congress leaders believe their communication with SP has improved since 2017, forming a strong front against the BJP in Parliament.
Both parties recognize that splitting anti-BJP votes could lead to an easy victory for the BJP if they run separately.
Looking at the states set for early 2027 elections, Congress is hopeful about its chances in Uttarakhand and Punjab, based on past successes and the current state of opposition parties. However, the BJP remains a formidable force, especially with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath actively campaigning to maintain their lead.
