Why It Matters
A recent report from the Congressional Research Service highlights key changes in India’s political landscape at a time when its democratic framework is evolving. This shift has important implications for U.S. foreign policy and trade relations with the country.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) faced challenges as they entered 2024, having to form a coalition government for the first time. However, by spring 2026, the BJP had made significant gains, capturing states that were traditionally strongholds for the opposition. This raises concerns about the state of democracy in India and how a stronger BJP might affect U.S. relations with New Delhi.
The Big Picture
In India, real political power lies with the Prime Minister and the Council of Ministers, not the ceremonial role of the President. The Lok Sabha, a 543-seat lower house, is the center of national authority. The Rajya Sabha, the upper chamber, has some power but cannot remove the Prime Minister or veto budget decisions. Understanding this structure is vital for U.S. policymakers, as it limits what Modi can do at home and in negotiations abroad.
The 2024 elections surprised many. Although the BJP secured 240 Lok Sabha seats, it fell short of a majority and had to form a coalition with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which collectively holds 293 seats. Many analysts described this outcome as a “setback” for Modi, marking a divisive campaign.
The report notes a continued winning trend for the BJP at the state level, significantly reshaping India’s political balance. In 2024, the party gained control in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, while retaining power in Haryana and Maharashtra. By 2025, it also took over the Delhi National Capital Territory for the first time in almost 30 years, and a longtime ally in Bihar also shifted power to a BJP leader.
In West Bengal, the BJP captured over 70 percent of the seats, dismantling Mamata Banerjee’s 15-year rule. In 2026, the BJP also made waves in Tamil Nadu by ousting the incumbent DMK. Currently, the BJP governs 16 states, with allied leaders in four more. Now, half of India’s population lives in BJP-led states.
Indian Political Parties and the Opposition’s Retreat
The opposition coalition known as INDIA has struggled to maintain its strength. Its significant defeats, like in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu, have weakened its presence in key states. The Indian National Congress, a major party, won only 99 Lok Sabha seats with 21 percent of the national vote and controls just four states. The BJP now holds over a third of state legislature seats, compared to less than one-fifth for Congress.
While some regional parties are influential, the BJP’s dominance risks sidelining them as significant power players.
Political Stakes
For the U.S. government, the BJP’s increasing influence presents both opportunities and challenges. A stable Modi government aligns with U.S. defense and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. However, Modi’s coalition leadership might complicate economic reforms that the U.S. desires, as partners may resist changes unfavorable to their local supporters. India’s economic situation remains mixed: strong growth has lifted many out of poverty, yet issues like inequality and joblessness persist.
For Congress
The CRS report provides clarity on India’s political landscape, crucial for U.S. lawmakers involved in foreign affairs and trade. It raises two major concerns: first, the potential erosion of democratic principles, as many observers express worries about the rise of Hindu nationalism affecting minority rights. This tension could conflict with U.S. goals of promoting religious freedom.
Second, the opposition’s unity demonstrated by blocking a major constitutional amendment suggests that checks and balances still exist, but the question remains whether this can hold as the BJP grows its power in the Rajya Sabha.
For the Indian Public
The report depicts India as a democracy with ongoing electoral competition, although one party is gaining more structural advantages. The BJP’s success in West Bengal signals that fewer opposition strongholds remain secure. At the same time, Modi’s inability to secure a clear majority in 2024 shows that Indian voters can still hold leaders accountable.
The Bottom Line
The CRS report offers Congress an essential overview of India’s changing political dynamics. The BJP’s ongoing influence is reshaping how Indian democracy functions, giving it greater power in the legislative arena and undermining the opposition. As the U.S. navigates its relationship with India, it faces a more predictable partner on strategic matters, albeit one whose domestic ideologies may clash with U.S. values regarding human rights and trade.
The recent legislative action against the Lok Sabha expansion bill indicates that the opposition can unite when necessary. Observing whether this cooperation can continue as the BJP accumulates more seats in the Rajya Sabha will be vital for U.S. lawmakers.
