Gold Supply Tightens in India as Prices Surge
By Rajendra Jadhav and Brijesh Patel
In New Delhi, reports indicate that the availability of used gold jewelry and coins in India is dwindling. Many investors are holding onto their gold, anticipating that prices will continue to rise, even as they reach new heights nearly every week.
This situation is a stark contrast to March, when gold prices first surpassed $3,000 per ounce, prompting a flurry of selling as retail customers sought to cash in on their investments.
James Jose, managing director of CGR Metalloys, noted at the India Gold Conference that the prevailing sentiment among Indians is one of optimism regarding gold prices. “People believe that prices will go even higher, which is why they are not selling now,” he said.
Local gold prices recently peaked at 110,666 rupees (around $1,260) for every 10 grams, marking a 42% increase this year, following a 21% rise in the previous year.
Harshad Ajmera from JJ Gold House in Kolkata explained that increased prices typically lead to a rise in scrap supplies. However, this time, he indicated that many consumers expect prices could reach 125,000 rupees, prompting them to hold on to their gold rather than sell it.
While the high prices have made it difficult for many to buy new jewelry, a growing trend is emerging where consumers are trading in old pieces for newer ones, according to Amit Modak, CEO of PN Gadgil and Sons, a jeweler based in Pune.
To continue their operations amid a sharp decline in dore gold imports—semi-pure gold produced by miners—refiners are turning to scrap sourced from discarded jewelry.
As the festive season approaches, the limited availability of scrap gold is benefiting banks, which jewelers now rely on to fulfill demand for imported gold. Festivals like Dussehra and Diwali in October are traditionally seen as auspicious times for buying gold.
Typically, rising prices lead to discounts as the market becomes flooded with scrap gold. However, the current limited supply has allowed banks to impose a $1 premium on gold, even as prices hit record levels.
India’s gold imports surged by 37% in August from the previous month, reaching $5.4 billion, according to trade ministry data.
This dynamic in the gold market reflects a broader trend of cautious optimism among consumers as they navigate an uncertain financial landscape.
