India’s Green Energy Goals: An Investigation into Biofuel Risks
India is on a mission to reduce vehicle emissions by blending petrol with 20% plant-based ethanol by 2025. However, a recent study published in the journal PLOS ONE warns that this ambitious plan could threaten the nation’s food security and water supply. Researchers from the Indian Institute of Management (IIM) Ahmedabad, along with teams from Germany’s Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and France’s FABLE Consortium, found a troubling trade-off: while biofuels could help meet global climate targets, they might also lead to higher food prices and increased nitrogen pollution.
The study focuses on India’s 2018 National Policy on Biofuels, which accelerated its ethanol blending goal. To gauge the long-term effects of this policy, the researchers used a computer simulation known as MaGPIE, assessing potential outcomes through to 2050. Their findings reveal that India currently relies heavily on sugarcane for ethanol production. However, producing ethanol from molasses—a byproduct of sugar refining—places an even greater demand on natural resources than using only sugarcane juice.
One crucial factor is the type of raw material used to create ethanol. If the focus remains on molasses, it requires a significant amount of sugar to be produced first. The researchers warn that this could lead to an overwhelming surplus of sugar, potentially increasing to 710 million tonnes by 2030, outpacing global market needs. To keep up with this demand, the area used for sugarcane would need to grow by up to 25%, likely at the expense of vital crops like cereals and pulses. This shift could raise grocery bills for many Indian families.
The environmental implications of this agricultural expansion are serious, too. The study suggests that fertilizer use could rise dramatically—by as much as 600% in some scenarios—to satisfy sugarcane demand. This is concerning as nitrogen-based fertilizers can release nitrous oxide, a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide. Additionally, water scarcity, already a pressing issue in parts of India, could worsen. Sugarcane is known to consume large amounts of water, and agricultural water usage could increase by nearly 140% by 2050 in certain biofuel scenarios, straining groundwater resources further.
The research illustrates how global trade, local food prices, and essential resources like soil and water are interconnected. The global model used in the study shows that India’s policies could have wide-ranging effects on international markets, indicating that limited trade options for excess sugar could place further pressure on the country’s land and resources.
Importantly, the authors clarify that the study mainly investigates first-generation biofuels made from food crops like sugarcane and maize. It does not consider second-generation biofuels derived from agricultural waste or non-food plants, which could provide a more sustainable solution if scaled up. However, this technology is not yet available at the necessary scale to meet the 2030 targets. Additionally, the accuracy of the study hinges on advancements in agricultural technology; if improvements in crop productivity do not materialize, the negative impacts could be even more severe.
In conclusion, while India can pursue its green energy targets through biofuels, it must tread carefully. The researchers advocate for using sugarcane directly for ethanol instead of molasses, as this option would minimize sugar surpluses and conserve water. They stress the importance of linking biofuel ambitions with better fertilizer practices and technological investments in agriculture. By carefully balancing the quest for cleaner energy with the need for affordable food and water, India can strive towards sustainability without compromising the well-being of its most vulnerable citizens.
