Decline in Youth Identifying as Transgender or Non-Binary
Recent findings indicate a significant drop in the number of young adults identifying as transgender or non-binary. Eric Kaufman, a political professor at the University of Buckingham, noted that the percentage of college students identifying as genders other than male or female halved in just two years.
Further supporting this trend, Jean Twenge, a psychology professor at San Diego State University, has examined additional data that appears to align with Kaufman’s findings.
Twenge evaluated data from the Household Pulse survey, which directly asked respondents about their gender identity. She mentioned in an article for Generation Tech that the survey showed a decline in transgender identification among 18- to 22-year-olds in 2024. However, she expressed caution in interpreting this data since the decline only appeared during a narrow time window, and the survey included a new option for non-binary identification. This might explain the drop in those identifying as transgender.
Twenge also looked at results from the Cooperative Election Study (CES), which gathered information on transgender identification from U.S. adults between 2021 and 2024. The survey asked participants if they identified as transgender and included options for non-binary identification. The data showed that from 2022 to 2024, identification as transgender among young adults dropped nearly 50%, while non-binary identification decreased by more than half from 2023 to 2024.
She highlighted a notable trend: the increase in transgender identification among those born before 1980 (Gen X and Boomers) did not continue with younger generations, particularly those born in 2005 and 2006.
Twenge stated, “I think the question now is not if trans identification is in decline, but how low it will go.” Several theories are proposed as to why this decline is occurring. One explanation may relate to shifting social acceptance. As acceptance increased in previous years, more young adults may have felt comfortable identifying as transgender. However, as societal attitudes changed, fewer individuals may have chosen to identify this way.
Twenge emphasizes that identifying as transgender and being non-binary are distinct and should not be conflated.
Kaufman praised Twenge’s work, affirming that her findings complement his own research. He noted, “I think the question now is not if trans is in decline, but how far it will fall and what this means for cultural narratives and trends in gender surgery.”
Jonathan Alpert, a psychotherapist from New York City, described this trend as a “natural correction.” He explained that young people might be experiencing pressure to label every aspect of their identity, and some may be choosing to move away from rigid definitions. “Once people become more comfortable with who they are, they stop needing to define themselves so strictly,” he said, indicating a shift towards greater self-acceptance.
As this data continues to emerge, experts suggest that understanding the complexities of identity within the youth population is crucial for fostering a supportive environment.
